NAV CANADA study suggests drone operations could multiply 70-fold by 2045
A new market study commissioned by NAV CANADA projects remotely piloted aircraft systems (RPAS), commonly called drones, and advanced air mobility (AAM) could become one of the country’s fastest‑growing aviation sectors over the next two decades, with economic impacts measured in the tens of billions of dollars a year.
From experimental tool to critical infrastructure
Total drone and AAM operations in Canadian airspace are forecast to jump from about 308,000 flights in 2024 to more than 21 million by 2045, according to the RPAS and AAM Market Sizing and Economic Impact report.
The study estimates the sector contributed between $2.4 billion and $3.6 billion to Canada’s GDP in 2024 and supported more than 30,000 jobs. By 2045, annual GDP contribution is projected to exceed $69 billion, with roughly 290,000 jobs tied to drone and AAM activity.
“We’re going to see continued growth in the way that we do,” said Alan Chapman, director for RPAS Traffic Management at NAV CANADA. “As we get new capabilities to support the industry, that growth’s really going to take off, and it’s going to take off across all the segments that we’ve looked at in the study.”
Logistics expected to dominate drone skies
The analysis suggests drones will be deployed widely across sectors, from construction and energy to healthcare and public safety, but that transportation and logistics are likely to dominate by mid‑century. In 2024, construction, infrastructure and real estate accounted for 45 per cent of RPAS operations; by 2045, transportation and logistics are projected to represent 84 per cent of all drone flights.
NAV CANADA’s forecast also points to rapid expansion in hardware: the Canadian RPAS and AAM fleet is expected to grow from roughly 24,200 aircraft in 2024 to more than 506,000 by 2045. Flight hours are projected to increase from 685,000 to 12.4 million over the same period.
Chapman said the key inflection point will be moving beyond today’s largely visual‑line‑of‑sight operations into more routine beyond‑visual‑line‑of‑sight (BVLOS) flights in complex, urban airspace. “The big change that needs to come around is the enablement of beyond visual line of sight,” he said. “That’s kind of where the industry is moving towards… and Canada’s got a vision for how we get to that capability, which will allow this kind of growth and these kind of numbers to occur.”
Managing safety in a crowded low‑level sky
The same study underscores the strain such growth will place on low‑level airspace and traffic management systems. The share of operations expected to require RPAS Traffic Management (RTM) service support is forecast to rise from 52 per cent in 2024 to 90 per cent by 2045. By that point, the RTM system is projected to handle about 19.2 million operations a year, or more than 50,000 a day.
Chapman said regulators and service providers have deliberately taken a slow, incremental approach. “We don’t say this as much these days, but the approach was always crawl, walk, run,” he said. “Take things very slowly, build up experience… understand the safety risks. And of course, you’re talking to NAV CANADA—safety is our DNA.”
He added that Transport Canada’s updated RPAS regulations, introduced in late 2024, were informed by years of case‑by‑case approvals for special flight operations. Those approvals helped authorities “learn… what is safe, what can they slowly let out a little bit more space for operators on,” he said.
Looking ahead, Chapman expects regulatory evolution “slowly” rather than through rapid shifts. One area he singled out is electronic conspicuity—the ability for all airspace users to broadcast their position digitally. “In the future, I would love to see technology step into that more,” he said, arguing that making both drones and traditional aircraft electronically visible would help “keep all of the airspace safer.”
What safety leaders need to know
For employers and health and safety professionals contemplating drone programs, Chapman’s advice is to treat drones as part of their broader safety and quality systems. “Understand the regulations fully that are put in place. Leverage the tools and capabilities that are out there,” he said.
He pointed to pilot training, appropriate certification levels and careful fleet selection as central responsibilities for organizations planning drone operations. “Making sure that your pilots have the right level of certification… [and] that your drones and the fleet that you’re purchasing has all the right capabilities and certifications” are key steps, he said.
NAV CANADA’s own NavDrone app, which allows operators to review airspace constraints and regulatory requirements before flying, is one example of tools available today.
As Canada prepares for millions more drones over the coming decades, the study suggests their impact will extend well beyond aviation—reshaping logistics networks, public services and labour markets, while forcing regulators and operators to rethink how they share the skies.
